This is still a bit rough around the edges but I wanted to finally get this argument out there.
There are two possible views one might have about content (mental, linguistic or whatever). One view holds that there are certain events/relations/objects that intrinsically have certain content. That is what makes certain objects/states express content is a brute ontological fact. Searle’s belief that certain sorts of experiences just come with satisfaction conditions is a good example of this view. At the most basic level some components of the experience posses content like properties directly not as a consequence of any other facts about them. Alternatively you might not add content to your fundamental ontology and instead try and layer it on afterwards. For instance any attempt to define content in terms of counterfactual dispositions or other non-content bearing property. Let us call the former view content non-reductionism (CNR) and the later view content reductionism (CR). Note that the CR/CNR distinction is almost exactly analogous to the debate about ontological reducibility/irreducibility for experiences.
Generally any physicalist will hold CR as they obviously will be reluctant to add content to their fundamental ontology. While not logically required anyone who believes in content externalsim (e.g, supporters of the causal theory of reference) or is otherwise a proponent of broad mental content will endorse CR. Though some philosopher might endorse a crazy view like the extended mind hypothesis and thus reasonably hold both CNR and externalism it is a very rare and extreme view. The original and primary aim of most externalist theories is exactly to explain what gives rise to content they tend to be an alternative to views which hold that content is a fundamental constituent of reality.
In short most popular modern theories of content (Searle excepted) and almost all proponents of externalist theories of meaning endorse CR. This is particularly ironic as CR is incompatible with there being any fact of the matter about content externalism or a substantive dispute between internalism and externalism. Ultimately CR forces one to view content as a mere convenient approximation, much like classical physics and the supposed content it talks about is, like the rigid body, merely a useful idealization.
By definition content is not a part of the fundamental ontology under CR. Thus any statements about content are either fictional/formal (like mathematical statements about ideal objects) or reduce to a claim about objects in the fundamental ontology. Assuming that content claims aren’t totally formal then any physicalist must believe that claims about content are really heavily disguised claims about physical events. For instance the Kripke causal theory of reference must be interpreted as a (very high level) statement about the behavior of point particles (or strings or whatever). Already this should give one reason to doubt the more categorical claims about content as almost always high level approximate theories have exceptions.
In such a situation what it is for some theory of content, like Kripke’s causal theory of reference, to be ‘correct’ is simply to make accurate predictions. Since none of these theories aspire to give exact predictions about fundamental particle we can only evaluate it’s virtue as a convenient approximation as we do with classical mechanics. For the physicalist content externalism is only as good as the physical predictions it makes. In other words Kripke’s theory of reference is (approximately) ‘true’ if it gives accurate predictions of when people say, “Ohh yah he was referring to the such and such Socrates,” plus similar reactions.
Understood in this fashion we have no good evidence for content externalism. I tend to think our best predictive theory is the semi-internalist fold theory. But regardless of where you think the evidence lies the best theory of content would be an empirical matter to be studied by psychologists/anthropologists/social scientists. It doesn’t even make sense to employ the sorts of thought experiments about twin earth commonly used to argue for content externalism since the possibility that content externalism is literally true isn’t even on the table. Besides these thought experiments would now come out against content externalism. For instance it’s absurd to make the predictive claim that people wouldn’t (eventually) respond to swamp man as if he really was referring (even with words he has never heard).
Now I expect a few objections at this point. One might claim that content externalism is an idealization and these thought experiments shows the internal coherency of the idealization. However, once we know a theory (like classical mechanics) to be literally false purely theoretical virtue takes a back seat to pragmatic value and the theory fails in it’s original intent either way. Also one might try and claim that content externalism was merely a definition of reference, i.e., saying it is a fully formal theory. Yet if so this whole area of philosophy is not only misdirected but actually misleading. Content externalism would then be a pretty uninteresting branch of mathematics with fancy names that tricked us into thinking it was saying something about pre-theoretical notions of content or meaning.
The argument goes through just as effectively only assuming CR rather than full on physicalism. It doesn’t matter whether we have to reduce claims about content to fully physical properties or to some other (non-intrinsically contentful) set of properties. In either case it just doesn’t make any sense to talk about theories like content externalism being ‘true’ in any sense other than an approximate or trivial one. They certainly aren’t saying what they intuitively claim (there are actual states that have content prior to the theory and the theory describes how that content works).
The upshot of all this is that there are pretty much three choices we can take as philosophers when dealing with content.
1) Give up Kripke and Davidson and (like Searle) accept that content is really a basic constituent of reality.
2) Give up the idea of content as anything but a folk concept and leave it to the scientists to generate/test theories about how we actually assesses content.
3) Accept that we can only give approximate predictive type theories and try to come up with a simple theory describing actual human/societal norms about assigning content. Effectively we would be doing much the same thing that people do when they compile the rules of grammar. There is nothing ‘true’ or deep about the rules of grammar but a precise agreed upon statement can be helpful as might also a catalog of the societal norms about ascribing content. This too might require experiments.